Paragon Market Update Reports are powered by Altos Research, Copyright 2009 Altos Research LLC, all rights reserved. More information is available at www.altosresesarch.com.
Despite mostly negative reports from other parts of the country, the San Francisco home market has performed relatively well since the autumn market began after Labor Day. Indeed, the number of listings accepting offers in November was well above last year’s and the median home price is at its highest since the April tax-credit crush. Typically the market slows down dramatically from mid-November to mid-January, but so far it is slowing far less than usual.
Generally speaking, 30-40% of San Francisco new home listings accept offers within 30 days of going on market (i.e. quickly). They are perceived as good values, often attract multiple offers, and the sales prices for such homes are still, on average, slightly above the list price. (Houses perform better than condos, and condos perform better than TICs and multi-unit buildings.) Another 20% of new listings sell after 1 or more price reductions: on average, they’re on the market for over 100 days before offer acceptance, and sell at a sales price to original list price percentage that is 10-14% lower than that of homes selling quickly. And then 30-40% of listings expire without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The San Francisco home market is active, but buyers aren’t buying everything (as it seemed they did in the bubble years) – they’re buying only those properties they consider fair or, better yet, compelling values.
Current Active REO listings for all districts except 3 & 10 (there are another 41 REO listings in 3 & 10). Besides the REOs listed below, there are 118 known Active short sale listings in the 8 districts. (Click to enlarge)
Buyer demand has been strong since the autumn sales season began in mid-September. Overall median home prices continue to remain stable – as they have for the past 12-16 months – jogging up and down within a narrow band of value. Inventory is about 12% higher than 1 year ago, but Months’ Supply of Inventory remains at about 4 months of inventory, which is considered a relatively balanced situation between buyer’s and seller’s markets. However, for every 10 listings that have sold in the past 4 months, another 8 have expired without selling: buyers are choosing those properties they consider fairly priced (which typically sell quite quickly) and ignoring the rest. Average Days on Market for those houses, condos and TICs which did sell in October was 54 days: the lowest in over 2 years.
Below are specific San Francisco home sales which closed at or near the median prices for houses and condos sold in the neighborhood specified – however, they are not necessarily representative of typical values.
At the bottom of the newsletter are links to additional market trend analyses.
Specific SF HOUSE Sales at Median Price — by Neighborhood
Pacific Heights, $3,500,000, 4BR, 4.5 BA Victorian on California Street, 4509 sqft, panoramic views, decks, 6 fireplaces, 2 car parking, $776/sqft
Sea Cliff, $3,000,000, 1951 4BR, 3.5BA on El Camino del Mar; 3491 sqft; water, Golden Gate and Mt Tam views; Zen garden, 8000 sqft lot, 2 car parking, $859/sqft
Clarendon Heights, $2,800,000, modern 3-level 6BR, 5.5BA on Villa, 4580 sqft, panoramic views, all new systems, 4 car parking, $617/sqft
Russian Hill, $2,250,000, 1906 3BR, 2.5BA on Hyde, 2090 sqft, deck, garden, library, 2 car parking, $1077/sqft
Telegraph Hill, $2,000,000, 1912 3BR, 2.5BA Edwardian on Vallejo cul de sac; spectacular views of bay, bridge and downtown; roof deck, separate apartment, leased parking
Marina, $1,875,000, 1930 3BR, 2.5BA on Cervantes, 2180 sqft, seismic upgrades, bonus office, 2 pkg, $860/sqft
St Francis Wood, $1,825,000, 1956 4BR, 3.5BA on San Pablo, 3740 sqft, ocean views, bank-owned sale, 2 pkg, $488/sqft
Lake Street, $1,759,000 (median is $1.85m), 1913 3BR, 2.75BA, North of Lake Craftsman on 18th, 3465 sqft, family room, needs restoration work, 1 pkg, $508/sqft
Eureka Valley, $1,475,000, 1905 4BR, 2.5BA Victorian on Noe, 2389 sqft, family room, sunroom, 1 pkg, $617/sqft
Cole Valley, $1,450,000, 1907 3BR, 3BA on Cole, 2040 sqft, new systems and foundation, garden, deck, 2 pkg, $711/sqft
Forest Hill, $1,400,000, 1926 3BR, 3BA detached Spanish-Med on Magellan, bonus family room, deck, yard, 1 pkg
Lower Pacific Heights, $1,232,000, 1883 4BR, 2BA Victorian on Pine, needs complete renovation, 1760 sqft, 2 pkg, $700/sqft
North of Panhandle (NOPA), $1,230,000, 1910 2BR, 1.5BA Craftsman Edwardian on Hayes, 1950 sqft, seismic upgrades, decks, 2 pkg, $631/sqft
Noe Valley, $1,200,000, 1902 renovated 2BR, 2BA Victorian on Jersey, den, deck, yard, 1 pkg
West Portal, $1,095,000, 1926 4BR, 2.5BA detached Spanish-Med on Lenox, 2036 sqft, large yard, 1 pkg, $538/sqft
Diamond Heights, $1,035,000, 1975 3BR, 2.5BA contemporary on Berkeley, 2892 sqft, roof deck, Glen Canyon view, 2 pkg, $358/sqft
Potrero Hill, $950,000, 2BR, 1BA Marina-Style house on Wisconsin, north slope, bay and bay bridge views, beautiful garden, bonus office, 1 pkg
Glen Park, $929,000, 1909 2BR, 1.5BA corner-lot Victorian on Congo, 1471 sqft, garden, den, bonus rooms, 1 pkg, $632/sqft
Central Richmond, $925,000, 1919 3BR, 2BA Edwardian on 18th, 1827 sqft, 2 parking, $506/sqft
Inner Sunset, $833,000, 1948 3BR, 1.5BA contemporary on 18th Ave, FDR, patio, yard, 2 pkg, $499/sqft
Inner Mission, $800,000, 2BR, 2BA Victorian on Harrison, den, deck, bonus rooms, garden, 2 pkg
Central Sunset, $760,000, 1951 3BR, 1BA traditional on 35th Ave, 1400 sqft, expansion potential, 2 pkg, $543/sqft
Bernal Heights, $750,000, 1952 2BR, 1BA on Folsom, 1125 sqft, garden, 2 pkg, $667/sqft
Miraloma Park, $750,000, 1931 detached 2BR, 1BA on Rockdale, 1150 sqft, east views, FDR, deck, garden, 1 pkg, $652/sqft
Midtown Terrace, $750,000, 1957 3BR, 2BA on Dellbrook, 1244 sqft, bonus room with kitchenette, trust sale, 2 pkg, $603/sqft
Outer Parkside, $645,000, 1945 2BR, 1BA corner-lot house, 1089 sqft, ocean view, bonus room, expansion potential, 2 pkg, $592/sqft
Ingleside Heights, $520,000, 1955 3BR, 2BA tunnel-entrance home on Bright, 1394 sqft, 2 pkg, $373/sqft
Excelsior, $500,000, 1947 2BR, 1.5BA contemporary on Vienna, 1278 sqft, bonus BR & BA, short sale, 1 pkg, $391/sqft
Silver Terrace, $450,000, 1942 2BR, 1BA contractor special on Bridgeview, 1375 sqft, 4 pkg, $327/sqft
Specific SF CONDO Sales at Median Price — by Neighborhood
Marina, $1,100,000, 1935 2BR, 2BA Spanish-Med lower flat on Beach, FDR, sunroom, patio, shared garden, 1 pkg, $625/month dues
Russian Hill, $990,000, 1911 top-floor 2BR, 1.5BA Edwardian on Green, 1450 sqft, GG Bridge views, leased parking offsite, $219/month dues, $683/sqft
Pacific Heights, $857,000, 2BR, 2BA condo on Sacramento, 1130 sqft, doorman bldg, GG Bridge views, 1 pkg, $784/month dues, $758/sqft
Cole Valley, $827,000, 1924 2BR, 1.5BA top-floor flat on Belvedere, 1519 sqft, Marin Headlands view, FDR, 1 pkg, $250/month dues, $544/sqft
Duboce Triangle, $850,000, 2BR, 1BA top-floor Victorian on 15th, 1 car parking, $367/month dues
Eureka Valley/Castro, $790,000, 1911 2BR, 1BA top-floor flat on Hartford, 1054 sqft, downtown and Twin Peaks views, deck, $257/month dues, $750/sqft
NOPA, $775,000, 1900 2BR, 1BA lower flat on Grove, 1399 sqft, yard, deck, 2 fireplaces, 1 pkg, $225/month dues, $554/sqft
Noe Valley, $770,000, 1900 2BR, 1BA top-floor Victorian flat on 23rd , 1042 sqft, sunroom, 1 pkg, $241/month dues, $739/sqft
Nob Hill, $770,000, 1992 2BR, 2BA on Sacramento, 1289 sqft, 2 patios, city lights views, 1 pkg, $597/sqft
North Beach, $730,000, 2BR, 2BA lower flat on Vandewater, 910 sqft, walk-out garden, 1 pkg, $250/month dues, $820/sqft
Lower Pacific Heights, $693,000, 1916 3BR, 2BA top-floor Victorian on Baker, 1400 sqft, deck, 1 pkg, $300/month dues, $495/sqft
Hayes Valley, $685,000, 1992 2BR, 1.5BA townhome on lane off Fulton, 1146 sqft, 1 pkg, $411/month dues, $598/sqft
Mission Dolores, $684,000, 1907 3BR, 1BA top-floor Edwardian on Clinton Park, 1147 sqft, deck, office, leased pkg offsite, $220/month dues, $596/sqft
South Beach, $665,000, 2005 2BR, 2BA brick contemporary on King, 987 sqft, ballpark views, 1 pkg, $963/month for dues and parking, $674/sqft
Inner Mission, $649,000, 3BR, 2BA 2-level contemporary on Alabama, 1445 sqft, 1 pkg, $535/month dues, $449/sqft
SOMA, $579,000, 2002 2BR, 2BA, high-rise condo on South Van Ness, 1075 sqft, city and bridge views, 1 pkg, $539/month for dues and parking, $539/sqft
Potrero Hill, $575,000, 1999 1BR, 1.5BA top-floor condo on 17th , 1215 sqft, panoramic views, decks, family room, 1 pkg, $423/month dues, $473/sqft
North Waterfront, $537,500, 1983 1BR, 1BA high-rise condo on Lombard, 923 sqft, doorman bldg, balcony, 1 pkg, $809/month dues, $582/sqft
Western Addition, $535,000, 1963 3BR, 2BA condo on Cleary, high-rise, 1100 sqft, 1 pkg, $685/month dues, $486/sqft
San Francisco MLS sales closing between January 1 and September 30, 2010. Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less, and it may fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Dollar per square foot is based on “livable space”, which does not include decks, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit (“bonus rooms”). Sadly, square footage figures are often unreliable or unreported. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and omission, and not warranted.
October 2010 Market Update After a relatively slow summer, the number of new listings and accepted offers in San Francisco soared after Labor Day. Median prices remain stable; mortgage rates hit yet another low; and the Blue Angels returned. As usual, pundits are divided between this being the best time to buy a home in […]
It could be time to sell your low-yielding bonds and replace them with higher-yielding common stocks.
Multibillionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson, the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago, told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold.
Paulson’s warning to sell U.S. government bonds is one of the latest signs that the most successful investors of this generation believe the run up in bonds is over. Paulson especially underscored the attraction of equities with earnings yields of 7%-8% compared to the 2.6% pittance available on 10-year Treasuries.
Paulson listed his favorite blue-chip stocks; JNJ (Johnson& Johnson) at a 3.8% yield; KO(Coca Cola);PFE, 4% yield., as well as C (Citigroup), BAC (BankofAmerica) and STI (Suntrust Banks) and RF (Regions Financial).
Paulson is a pro at buying the distressed bonds of bankrupt companies, and then converting the debt to equity in reorganization and benefiting from the potential run up. He mentioned one of his greatest plays — K-Mart, which emerged from bankruptcy at $10 a share and then skyrocketed to $190 a share.
His crystal ball is for 2% GDP growth for 2011 and 2012 and he warns that the Fed’s promise of quantitative easing should contribute to double-digit inflation over the next few years.
As this is the best time in 50 years to buy homes, Paulson advised his listeners, crowded into 3 separate dining rooms, to issue 30 year mortgages to buy a home as “your debt and interest payments get locked in at record lows, while the price of your home will rise.”
“If you don’t own a home buy one,” Paulson recommended; ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Once all the ratifications were entered into MLS, it turns out that the week ending September 19th was the 2nd most active in number of accepted offers in the last 6 months: 141 deals. (The only week with more ratifications was the last week of April during the tax credit crush.)
We won’t have final numbers for the week ending the 26th (yesterday) for 3 or 4 more days, but right now, it looks like it might be as good or better in terms of ratifications.
Inventory is up with lots of new listings, and deals are being made.
Low, High & Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot SF MLS Home Sales: February 15, 2010 – August 15, 2010 Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes in buying trends, as well as by changes in market values. Dollar per Square Foot ($/sq.ft.) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms and apartments built without permit, decks, patios or yards (all of which can still add significant value). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable or unreported altogether. (Out of every 10 sales, perhaps 6 – 8 gave square footage, from which the average is calculated.) In the charts below, neighborhoods are listed in order of median sales price. A price followed by a “k” references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions. “REO” refers to the sale of bank-owned properties, typically pursuant to foreclosure.
FHA LAUNCHES SHORT REFI OPPORTUNITY FOR UNDERWATER HOMEOWNERS
Effort designed to encourage principal write-downs for responsible borrowers
WASHINGTON – In an effort to help responsible homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their property, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development today provided details on the adjustment to its refinance program which was announced earlier this year that will enable lenders to provide additional refinancing options to homeowners who owe more than their home is worth. Starting September 7, 2010, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will offer certain ‘underwater’ non-FHA borrowers who are current on their existing mortgage and whose lenders agree to write off at least ten percent of the unpaid principal balance of the first mortgage, the opportunity to qualify for a new FHA-insured mortgage.
The FHA Short Refinance option is targeted to help people who owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth – or ‘underwater’ – because their local markets saw large declines in home values. Originally announced in March, these changes and other programs that have been put in place will help the Administration meet its goal of stabilizing housing markets by offering a second chance to up to 3 to 4 million struggling homeowners through the end of 2012.
“We’re throwing a life line out to those families who are current on their mortgage and are experiencing financial hardships because property values in their community have declined,” said FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens. “This is another tool to help overcome the negative equity problem facing many responsible homeowners who are looking to refinance into a safer, more secure mortgage product.”
Today, FHA published a mortgagee letter to provide guidance to lenders on how to implement this new enhancement. Participation in FHA’s refinance program is voluntary and requires the consent of all lien holders. To be eligible for a new loan, the homeowner must owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth and be current on their existing mortgage. The homeowner must qualify for the new loan under standard FHA underwriting requirements and have a credit score equal to or greater than 500. The property must be the homeowner’s primary residence. And the borrower’s existing first lien holder must agree to write off at least 10% of their unpaid principal balance, bringing that borrower’s combined loan-to-value ratio to no greater than 115%.
In addition, the existing loan to be refinanced must not be an FHA-insured loan, and the refinanced FHA-insured first mortgage must have a loan-to-value ratio of no more than 97.75 percent. Interested homeowners should contact their lenders to determine if they are eligible and whether the lender agrees the write down a portion of the unpaid principal.
To facilitate the refinancing of new FHA-insured loans under this program, the U.S. Department of Treasury will provide incentives to existing second lien holders who agree to full or partial extinguishment of the liens. To be eligible, servicers must execute a Servicer Participation Agreement (SPA) with Fannie Mae, in its capacity as financial agent for the United States, on or before October 3, 2010.
For more information on FHA Short Refinance option, read FHA’s mortgagee letter.
HUD’s mission is to create strong, sustainable, inclusive communities and quality affordable homes for all. HUD is working to strengthen the housing market to bolster the economy and protect consumers; meet the need for quality affordable rental homes: utilize housing as a platform for improving quality of life; build inclusive and sustainable communities free from discrimination; and transform the way HUD does business. More information about HUD and its programs is available on the Internet at www.hud.gov and espanol.hud.gov.
Looking to invest in other markets? Let me help you find an agent.
Vulture investors: They’re back – and making a bundle
By Les Christie, staff writerAugust 5, 2010
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — These are the glory days of the residential real estate investor. Low prices, rock-bottom interest rates and stable rental markets have created huge buying opportunities.
“It’s awesome right now. I don’t think we’ll ever see another time like this,” said Tanya Marchiol of Team Investments, which has operations in about 10 states but focuses mostly on the Phoenix market.
These investors are known to many as vultures because they swoop in and buy “distressed properties” — foreclosures and short sales — cheap. Places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami are popular because home prices there have dropped as much as 70%.
But how they’re investing has changed. In the boom years, they would buy a property and flip it for a quick cash out. Today, they are holding and renting for hefty, steady incomes.
Once they analyzed their decisions based on home-price appreciation, which is very speculative. Now they consider potential rental profits, which is far more stable.
Back then, they flipped often and helped to bid up home prices into a froth. Now, the investors say, they can be a part of stabilizing neighborhoods.
Condos for less than the cost of a Corolla
“People are not in it to flip like back in the old economy,” said Matt Martinez, an investor and author whose new book, “How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New Economy” comes out next February. “The new economy dictates that you have to have a long time horizon.”
Marchiol, for example, does not even factor in home price appreciation for at least a year. After that, she calculates only a 3% annual increase — a return that won’t turn heads of investors who only want to buy low and sell high.
Marchiol just purchased four separate four-plexes in North Phoenix. Three years ago, each four-unit building sold for $310,000; she paid just $70,000 per building. She intends to spend about $64,000 rehabbing the properties, making her total investment $344,000.
National average for a 30-year fixed loan is at 4.49 percent
By ALAN ZIBEL
Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level on record for the sixth time in seven weeks, offering the most attractive opportunity in decades for those who qualify to refinance or purchase a home.
Government-controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate for 30-year fixed loans this week was 4.49 percent, down from 4.54 percent last week. That’s the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971.
The average rate on the 15-year fixed loan dropped to 3.95 percent, down from 4 percent last week and the lowest on record.
Rates have fallen since spring as investors seek the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds. That has lowered the yield on Treasurys. Mortgage rates tend to track those yields.
The last time home loan rates were lower was during the 1950s, when most mortgages lasted just 20 or 25 years.
Low rates have sparked some activity in the weak housing market, but not a massive boom in refinancing.
Applications to refinance loans increased 1.3 percent and those to purchase homes increased 1.5 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Rosen Consulting Group Forecasts Overall Positive Year for San Francisco Housing Market
(Editor’s Note: Appearing below is the press release accompanying the Association’s Market Focus report for June. The report can be viewed by clicking on the link below the press release. A report is issued each month jointly by Rosen Consulting Group and the Association. The reports are intended to provide the media and REALTOR® members of the Association with monthly analyses of the state of the local economy and the housing and mortgage markets.
The reports are issued ahead of reports from CAR and NAR and, hopefully, will go a long way to dispelling the notion that the San Francisco residential real estate market is little different than other markets in the country experiencing stagnation and significant price declines.
Rosen Consulting Group is an economic and real estate consulting firm providing clients with high-level strategic consulting services. Founded in 1990 by Dr. Kenneth T. Rosen, he and Arthur Margon are currently the firm’s partners and active managers. Rosen Consulting Group consists of 20 research professionals based in Berkeley, CA and New York.)
“We are confident that the housing market in San Francisco is in the early stages of recovery and expect a sustainable but modest rise in San Francisco home prices for the balance of 2010,” says the most recent Market Focus report issued by the Rosen Consulting Group of Berkeley, California, and published by the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®.
Rising affordability levels, aided by already reduced housing prices and low mortgage rates are given credit for the growing demand for housing units in the city, particularly at the low and middle ends of the market.
The report says that the growing demand has had the effect of tightening market conditions in the city during the past 12 months and has caused prices to stabilize for more moderately priced homes, and for the luxury segment of the market to gain traction. These developments have contributed to home sales becoming more evenly distributed across price segments and for the median sales price to trend upward.
John Lee, president of the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®, agrees with the conclusions of the Rosen Consulting Group, saying that, “The overall underlying trend of the housing market in San Francisco should remain positive, resulting in price appreciation and a further tightening of market conditions into year-end 2010.”
The report states that the median single-family home sales price in San Francisco rose 4.6%, year-over-year, in June 2010 to $800,000 (Figure 1). And, while completed single-family home sales through the first half of 2010 showed a 24% increase for the same period in 2009, they showed a 14% decline in comparison to the last six months of 2009 (Figure 2).
Of the 219 completed single-family homes sales in June 2010, approximately 35% were homes priced at $700,000 or less in comparison to January 2009, when this proportion of the market accounted for more than 65% of all sales.
The number of single-family homes on the market, in comparison to the same period last year, remained unchanged. For-sale inventory stood at 707 homes in June, matching the number of homes for sale in June 2009. Coinciding with the steady level of for-sale inventory, at the current monthly contract sales rate, the months supply of single-family homes remained at 3.1 months, also unchanged from June 2009 (Figure 3).
Lee noted that, “Rising housing affordability resulting from attractive pricing and low mortgage rates has strengthened the demand for condominium units, particularly among first-time home buyers.”
The median condominium sales price in June 2010 increased 8.7% from June 2009 to $690,000. Completed sales totaled 230 units, an increase of more than 20% during this time.
Through the first half of 2010, condominium sales totaled 1,164 units, a 48% increase from total condominium sales during the same period in 2009. Despite the jump in sales in comparison to the trough of the market in the first half of 2009, condominium sales slipped 13% in comparison to total sales during the last six months of the year.
While cautioning that the eventual full recovery of San Francisco’s housing market is dependent on improvements to the job market, the Rosen Consulting Group forecasts an overall positive year: “While the elimination of government incentives, as well as stricter availability of credit will test the market during the second half of this year, the anticipated rebound in job creation into the end of this year and the resulting rise in demand combined with the pent-up demand for affordable, for-sale units in the market should result in an overall positive year for the San Francisco housing market.”
Spring 2010 Home Sales at Selected Price Points
Pacific Heights on Broadway: 4 BR, 6 BA, 4-story mansion; GG bridge and bay views, elevator, 4 fireplaces, spa, garden, terraces, loggia, “unparalleled technology,” LEED energy certification, 2 car pkg.
For $3,000,000 to $6,550,000
$6,550,000: Pacific Hghts on Broadway: 7 BR, 5.5 BA, 1900 Victorian; GG & bay views from every level; south garden, elevator, 2 decks, 4 car pkg.
$5,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Steiner: 4 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-story, 5300 sq.ft. 1930 SFD (house); GG & bay views, au pair, 2 car pkg. $1057/sq.ft.
$4,440,000: Presidio Hghts on Clay: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 12-room, 5150 sq.ft. 1910 Edwardian; media rm, gym, 1 pkg. $862/sq.ft.
$4,100,000: Russian Hill on Lombard: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, Spanish-Med SFD; GG & city views, 1 pkg.
$3,940,000: Sea Cliff on Lake: 4 BR, 4.5 BA, 5370 sq.ft. 1925 brick-front Colonial; GG & North Bay views, elevator, guest suite, library, 2 pkg. $734/sq.ft.
$3,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Pacific: 2 BR, 3 BA, 2714 sq.ft. 1924 penthouse; bridge to bridge views, terrace, solarium, 1 pkg. $1326/sq.ft.
$3,350,000: Noe Valley on 23rd: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 1900 Shingle Victorian; bay and hills view, 2 pkg.
$3,100,000: Russian Hill on North Point: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2554 sq.ft. 1907 condo; stunning views, 3 decks, 2 pkg. $1214/sq.ft.
For about $2,000,000
Hayes Valley on Waller: 5 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-flr Victorian; deck, garden, full attic, 2 pkg.
Corona Heights: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2810 sq.ft. contemp. Edwardian; energy efficient, 2 pkg. $721/sq.ft.
Presidio Heights: 4 BR, 2 BA, 2289 sq.ft. 1911 top-flr condo; GG views, deck, pkg. $852/sq.ft.
Ashbury Hghts on Belvedere: 4 BR, 1.5 BA, 2680 sq.ft. 1906 Edwardian; elevator, pkg. $772/sq.ft.
Eureka Vly on Eureka: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2480 sq.ft. 2002 SFD; deck, solar panels, 2 pkg. $766/sq.ft.
Marina on Bay: 3 BR, 3 BA, 2415 sq.ft. 1929, 2-story Spanish-Med SFD; garden, 2 pkg. $821/sq.ft.
For about $1,500,000
Forest Hill: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2584 sq.ft. 1922 French Colonial; bonus room, 1 pkg. $600/sq.ft.
Dogpatch at Esprit Park: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2994 sq.ft. 2008 condo; deck, 2 pkg. $508/sq.ft.
St. Francis Wood: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2039 sq.ft. 1922 SFD; ocean views, yard, 2 pkg. $736/sq.ft.
Noe Vly on Guerrero: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1846 sq.ft. 2010 townhouse; LEED certified, 1 pkg. $813/sq.ft.
Parnassus Hghts on Edgewood: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1951 SFD; bay & city vws, decks, pkg, next to forest.
South Beach on Brannan: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1949 sq.ft. 2004 condo loft; bay views, 1 pkg. $759/sq.ft.
Noe Vly on Noe: two 1922 3-BR flats, 3042 sq.ft., decks, yard, 2 pkg. $493/sq.ft.
For about $1,250,000
Pine Lake near Stern Grove: 5 BR, 3 BA, 3245 sq.ft. 1936 Spanish-Med SFD; 2 pkg. $378/sq.ft.
Golden Gate Hghts: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2159 sq.ft. 1940 Cape Cod SFD; water views, 1 pkg. $568/sq.ft.
Cow Hollow on Franklin: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1500 sq.ft. 1930′s SFD; yard, 3 pkg. $817/sq.ft.
Bernal Hghts on Winfield: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1800 sq.ft. rebuilt SFD; pano views, 1 pkg. $688/sq.ft.
Pacific Hghts on Lafayette Park: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1550 sq.ft. 1928 condo; views, 1 pkg. $790/sq.ft.
SOMA on 4th: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1792 sq.ft. 1911 penthouse loft; city views, patio, 2 pkg. $698/sq.ft.
For about $1,000,000
Central Richmond: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 2075 sq.ft. rebuilt 1923 SFD; garden, 1 pkg. $486/sq.ft.
Bernal Heights: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 2300 sq.ft. new 5-lvl SFD; bay & city views, 2 pkg. $437/sq.ft.
Potrero Hill on Vermont: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1876 sq.ft. 1907 Victorian; deck, 1 pkg. $522/sq.ft.
Central Sunset: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2130 sq.ft. 1933 Rousseau SFD; ocean views, 2 pkg. $481/sq.ft.
Mt. Davidson Manor: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2069 sq.ft. 1959 SFD; ocean, bay & city vws; 2 pkg. $474/sq.ft.
Glen Park: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1687 sq.ft. 1925 SFD; needs TLC, bonus rms, trust sale, 1 pkg. $591/sq.ft.
Lower Pacific Hghts on Pine: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1600 sq.ft. top-flr condo; view, deck, 1 pkg. $616/sq.ft.
Marina on Broderick: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1479 sq.ft. 1920′s top-flr condo; sunroom, 1 pkg. $690/sq.ft.
Corona Hghts: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1425 sq.ft. 1962, 2-lvl, top-flr condo; bay views, 1 pkg. $709/sq.ft.
Inner Sunset on 9th: 2 vacant Edwardian flats, 2530 sq.ft., 2 pkg. $387/sq.ft.
For about $750,000
Outer Parkside: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1643 sq.ft. 1948 SFD; ocean & headlands views, 2 pkg. $453/sq.ft.
Central Sunset: 3 BR, 1.5 BA, 1500 sq.ft. 1950 SFD; bonus rms, lge garage, 2 pkg. $510/sq.ft.
Mission Terrace: 3 BR, 1 BA, 1493 sq.ft. 1923 SFD; corner lot, bonus rooms, 2 pkg. $509/sq.ft.
Inner Mission on Valencia: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1090 sq.ft. new-built TIC; deck, 2 pkg. $678/sq.ft.
South Beach at The Towers: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1140 sq.ft. 2000 condo; 1 pkg. $649/sq.ft.
Noe Vly: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1200 sq.ft. 2005, lwr-lvl contemp. condo; roof deck, 1 pkg. $617/sq.ft.
NOPA on McAllister: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1999 2-level, contemporary condo; patio. 1 pkg.
SOMA on Townsend: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1238 sq.ft. brick & timber 2007 condo; 1 pkg. $618/sq.ft.
Hayes Vly on Haight: 2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1515 sq.ft. 1878 Vict. top-flr condo; leased pkg. $495/sq.ft.
Mission Bay on King: 2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1455 sq.ft. 2003 2-level condo; patio, 1 pkg. $509/sq.ft.
Duboce Triangle: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1230 sq.ft. 1907 Edwardian condo; garden, 1 pkg. $618/sq.ft.
Miraloma Park: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1150 sq.ft. 1931 “jewel box” SFD: city vws, 1 pkg. $652/sq.ft.
Outer Richmond on 34th: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1345 sq.ft. 1922, 5-room SFD; 3 pkg. $565/sq.ft.
Van Ness on Alice Toklas: 1 BR, 2 BA, 1257 sq.ft. penthouse loft; 1 pkg. $597/sq.ft.
For about $650,000
Parkside on 31st: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1475 sq.ft. 1937 SFD plus studio unit; 2 pkg. $441/sq.ft.
Outer Sunset on Irving: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1356 sq.ft. 1958 SFD; probate, 2 pkg. $487/sq.ft.
Forest Knolls on Galewood: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1465 sq.ft. 1978 3-lvl SFD; 2 pkg. $440/sq.ft.
Central Sunset: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1635 sq.ft. 1941 SFD; trust sale, illegal unit, 2 pkg. $401/sq.ft.
Alamo Sq. on Hayes: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1078 sq.ft. contemp. full-flr condo; deck, 1 pkg. $603/sq.ft.
Potrero Hill on 18th: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1087 sq.ft. 1995 condo-loft; 1 pkg. $598/sq.ft.
South Beach on King: 2BR, 2 BA, 900 sq.ft. 2007 high-rise condo; 1 pkg. $728/sq.ft.
Glen Park: 2 BR, 1 BA, 957 sq.ft. 1938 SFD; trust sale, large basement, 2 pkg. $690/sq.ft.
Westwood Highlands: 2 BR, 1 BA, 967 sq.ft. ranch SFD; short sale, yard, 2 pkg. $683/sq.ft.
Pacific Hghts on Gough: 1 BR, 1 BA, 1000 sq.ft. 1926 condo; short sale, den. $650/sq.ft.
Nob Hill on Clay: 1 BR, 1 BA, 1100 sq.ft. 1950 condo; roof deck view, 1 pkg. $591/sq.ft.
For about $500,000
Silver Terrace: 3 BR, 1 BA, 1012 sq.ft. 1943 SFD; large bonus room, 2 pkg. $494/sq.ft.
SOMA on Bryant: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1136 sq.ft. 3-lvl condo; short sale, 1 pkg. $443/sq.ft.
Outer Richmond on beach: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1384 sq.ft. 1983 condo; ocean vw, 1 pkg. $361/sq.ft.
Oceanview: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1125 sq.ft. 1940 SFD; bonus rooms, 1 pkg. $448/sq.ft.
Crocker Amazon: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1375 sq.ft. 1914 Arts & Crafts SFD; attic, 1 pkg. $366/sq.ft.
Diamond Heights: 2 BR, 1 BA, 990 sq.ft. 1972 condo; patio, 1 pkg. $504/sq.ft.
Mission Dolores on Valencia: 1 BR, 1 BA, 657 sq.ft. 2005 condo; short sale, 1 pkg. $753/sq.ft.
Marina on Mallorca: 1 BR, 1 BA, Edwardian garden condo; no pkg.
Bank-Owned Home Sales
There were 59 bank-owned (REO) house sales and 28 REO condo sales since spring began, constituting about 8% of total unit sales in San Francisco. The average dollar per sq.ft. was $387 for REO houses and $463 for REO condos. The median REO house price was $475,000 and the average REO condo price was $440,000. The REO house market in particular is quite hot: 66% of recent sales sold virtually immediately at an average of 5% above list price. Despite the variety of neighborhoods listed below, 45 out of the 59 REO house sales occurred in the city’s less affluent south and southeast neighborhoods, stretching from Oceanview to Bay View. Half of the REO condo sales occurred in the eastern, condo-heavy neighborhoods stretching from South Beach/SOMA to Potrero Hill.
$7,800,000: Pacific Hghts: 6 BR, 5.5 BA, 1900 Victorian; GG & bay views, elevator, 2 pkg.
$1,825,000: St. Francis Wood: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 3740 sq.ft. 1956 SFD; ocean vws, 2 pkg. $488/sq.ft.
$959,000: Central Richmond: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 2340 sq.ft. 1923 Edwardian; 2 pkg. $410/sq.ft.
$650,000: Outer Sunset: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1100 sq.ft. 1952 SFD; bonus BR & BA, 1 pkg. $582/sq.ft.
$622,000: Bay View: 6 BR, 4 BA, 3916 sq.ft. 2006 SFD; bonus rooms, bay vws, decks. $159/sq.ft.
$617,000: Outer Parkside: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1754 sq.ft. 1945 SFD; bonus rms, deck, 2 pkg. $352/sq.ft.
$555,443: Ingleside: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1443 sq.ft. 1908 Victorian; illegal unit, yard, no pkg. $385/sq.ft.
$550,000: Noe Vly on San Jose: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1366 sq.ft. 1900 Victorian; tenants, pkg. $403/sq.ft.
$350,000: Visitacion Vly: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1091 sq.ft. 1924 SFD, bonus room, 1 pkg. $321/sq.ft.
$288,000: Crocker Amazon: 1907 “Contractor’s Special” SFD & garage.
The above are specific sales which closed 3/21/10 – 6/1/10, but they are not necessarily representative of typical values for the property type and neighborhood delineated. In real estate, the devil’s in the details: exact location within a neighborhood, quality of condition and renovations, quality of views, curb appeal, “extra” rooms, lot size and many other factors all impact property values. SFD = single family dwelling (house). Square footage is based on “livable space”, which may be measured in different ways, but does not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit (“bonus rooms” and “in-law apts”). Square footage figures are often unreported or unreliable.
All data from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and omission, and not warranted.
There is an an excellent article in the SF Business Times about the rebound in the condo market. Here is the Socketsite coverage of the article that has links to further articles.
Sales Office Stats: 555 Bartlett, 829 Folsom, LindenHayes, And Union
Sales office stats by way of the San Francisco Business Times for a few of the smaller new condo developments about town:
∙ 555 Bartlett: 31 (including 9 BMR) of 46 units in contract
“Pricing of these projects is a good 25 to 30 percent below the peak of the last cycle with prices hovering in the $600 to $750 a square foot range now. Buyers are bargaining hard while developers are lucky to recoup their equity or eke out a slim profit.”
∙ San Francisco condos rebound — in a small way [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ Snap! 555 Bartlett In Living Color [SocketSite]
∙ 829 Folsom Cuts Prices And Pushes For April Closings [SocketSite]
∙ 233 Franklin Dubbed “LindenHayes” (And An Overview Now Online) [SocketSite]
∙ The Union Of 76 New Units At 2101/2125 Bryant [SocketSite]
We live in a constant storm of analysis and opinion as to what is happening and will happen in real estate. Due to national statistics in December (and other economic indicators), some have predicted a nasty “double dip” in the home market subsequent to the recovery which began last spring. But the market goes into hibernation in December: there are far fewer transactions, mostly by first-time buyers purchasing at lower price points, while families and upper-end buyers generally withdraw for the holidays. When the data is reduced and skewed, it’s less reliable. January isn’t much better because it takes a while for the market to wake up.
Therefore, the market data for February, as seen in the charts below, is of particular interest. While it’s unwise to make too much of one month’s data (a failing of many pundits), it is surprising how sharply February’s statistics indicate a strengthening market. That is not to say a double-dip isn’t possible — the state, national and world economies are still fragile — just that we are not yet seeing indications of one here in San Francisco. Those who have spent the last year waiting eagerly for further price declines have so far waited in vain. (For the record: according to the Case-Shiller index, home values in the 5-county SF Metro Area have increased 4 – 5% in 2009, but the city accounts for only a small percentage of those sales.) It will be interesting to see if the trends seen below continue, as spring gets under way — and what implications that might hold regarding price movements.
There has suddenly been a lot of talk in the media about how, based upon December numbers, the housing market is faltering – and there’s talk of a “double-dip” and so on. Honestly, I have no idea what the future holds, but drawing big conclusions from 1 month’s data is nonsensical. In any case, here is a chart of SF listings going under contract. December’s ratifications did fall from the autumn, as they always do, but comparing the numbers to not only last year (crash) but to 2007, we see that December 2009 was not particularly weak, at least not here in SF.
The data below is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors or omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS (such as many new-development condo sales) are not reflected in these statistics. Median prices may fluctuate for other reasons besides changes in value.
SF Median Home Price by Property Type
Depending on neighborhood, SF home values peaked in 2006, 2007 or 2008, then declined dramatically in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially after 9/15/08), and then recovered (somewhat) with the surge in sales that began in spring of 2009. The increase in TIC median price in the 4th quarter of 2008 and the 1st quarter of 2009 is an anomaly: very few sales occurred and they do not reflect the reality that TIC values also fell during this period. (A good example of how median prices can fluctuate.) The main point of the chart is the stability of house and condo median prices in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2009, and the uptick seen in the 4th quarter. It is too soon to reach definitive conclusions, but it appears that buyer demand is fueling a small increase in values.
Although it has been a difficult year for residential housing markets nationwide, San Francisco has fared better. The market’s inherent high barriers to entry, combined with the city’s limited exposure to exotic mortgage abuse during the most recent housing cycle have helped protect it from the initial wave of home price corrections, according to the latest Market Focus report, published jointly by Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®.
The report indicates that in recent months, the San Francisco housing market has shown increasing price stability, particularly at the low-end of the market, while for-sale inventory levels have declined significantly and at a much faster rate in comparison to other parts of the country.
December 2009 Newsletter: Real Estate in San Francisco
It has been an interesting year in real estate, and it continues to be a very interesting time for home buyers and sellers in San Francisco. Below are a number of charts which review the city’s market from a variety of angles.
The data below is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors or omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS (such as many new-development condo sales) are not reflected in these statistics.
The San Francisco Association of REALTORS® has issued its Market Focus report for October.
The reports are issued monthly and are prepared for the Association by the Rosen Consulting Group of Berkeley. The reports are based on information provided by Terradatum which extracts and analyzes information from the Association’s MLS.
Download the PDF’s to view the full reports:
-Market Focus: A monthly analysis of the San Francisco real estate market
File Attachment: SFAR_Press_Release_111709.pdf (370 KB)
-San Francisco Pending Home Sales Increase 58 Percent Year over Year
File Attachment: SF_Realtors-November2009.pdf (151 KB)